The use of lightning data and Meteosat infrared imagery for the nowcasting of lightning activity

• A lightning activity operational nowcasting tool for Greece is developed.
• MSG IR imagery and ZEUS lightning detection network data are the sole inputs.
• The tool performs efficiently for the summer period despite occasional overestimations.

The development and efficiency assessment of a lightning activity nowcasting tool is presented. The tool employs MSG IR imagery and real-time lightning data provided by ZEUS network to nowcast the manifestation of lightning activity over the Greek mainland for a time span of 1 h. The efficiency of the tool is assessed for 20 days with widespread lightning activity observed during the warm period of the year through a verification procedure that computes a collection of appropriate statistics for selected areas. The analysis of these statistics shows that the tool estimates successfully almost 80% of the upcoming activity. The false alarm rate is close to 40%, while a small overestimation is evident. Since the adverse effects of a case of missed activity are much more than that of a false alarm, the tool is considered successful and fit for operational use.