Tropospheric ozone and aerosol long-term trends over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), India

We investigate, for the first time, long-term trends in tropospheric ozone and its association with the industrial growth in large part of India. A multifunction regression model has been used to estimate the trends in tropospheric ozone between 1979 and 1992 over the Indian region. Increasing trends in tropospheric ozone are observed over most of the regions of India. Recent year's (2005–2010) data also shows the similar features. It is quite consistent with the observed trends in coal (9.2%/year) and petroleum (8.3%/year) consumption, and NOx and CO emissions in India during the study period. The regressed Tropospheric Ozone Residual (TOR) pattern during monsoon season shows large trend over the entire Indo-Gangetic region and is largest, 6–7.2% per decade, over the northeastern Gangetic plain of India. Annually, trend of about 0.4 ± 0.25 (1σ) % per year has been seen over the northeastern Gangetic region. Similar positive trend in aerosol index (AI) (1.7 ± 1.2 (1σ) % per year) is also detected over this region. The quality of correlation between TOR and AI suggested that tropospheric ozone appeared to be influenced by the increased anthropogenic activities in this region.

► Long-term trends in tropospheric ozone and aerosol index shows increasing tendency over the northern plain of India.
► Trend in tropospheric ozone and aerosol index correlates well with the trend in precursor emissions.
► Emissions of ozone precursors show substantial increase over India and particular large increase over the Indo-Gangetic Plain.
► Coal and petroleum consumption show increasing trend and show significant correlation with aerosol index.