Numerical modeling of severe convective storms occurring in the Carpathian Basin

Squall lines often cause serious damages due to the strong surface outflow, hail, or heavy precipitation in Hungary every summer. Squall lines in the Carpathian Basin can be classified into two main categories: pre-frontal squall-lines and frontal convective lines. In this paper, these two types of severe mesoscale phenomena are investigated using the high resolution numerical weather prediction model, the MM5. The case study for the first type of convective systems occurred on 18th May 2005 when two main convective lines with their embedded severe storms formed daytime and caused high-velocity wind events and extensive damages in the eastern part of Hungary. The second case study is a frontal squall line that hit Budapest on 20th August 2006 and the associated high precipitation (HP) supercells reached the capital of Hungary at same time when the traditional Constitution Day firework began. The consequences were catastrophic: five people were killed and more than one thousand were injured due to the extreme weather. The non-hydrostatic high resolution MM5 model was able to simulate and catch the severe weather events occurred on the days under discussion. Moreover, the model was able to compute the detailed structure of the supercells embedded in thunderstorm lines. By studying the equivalent potential temperature (EPT) fields at lower levels, we state that in the prefrontal case, there is a competition between the supercell thunderstorms for the wet and warm air. A thunderstorm that can collect the wet and warm air from larger area will have longer lifetime and more intense updraft. In the second case, the frontal squall lines, the movement and the behavior of the supercell storms embedded in the line was highly determined by the synoptic-scale motions and less affected by the EPT field of the prefrontal masses.