Evaluation of health benefit using BenMAP-CE with an integrated scheme of model and monitor data during Guangzhou Asian Games

Guangzhou is the capital and largest city (land area: 7287 km2) of Guangdong province in South China. The air quality in Guangzhou typically worsens in November due to unfavorable meteorological conditions for pollutant dispersion. During the Guangzhou Asian Games in November 2010, the Guangzhou government carried out a number of emission control measures that significantly improved the air quality. In this paper, we estimated the acute health outcome changes related to the air quality improvement during the 2010 Guangzhou Asian Games using a next-generation, fully-integrated assessment system for air quality and health benefits. This advanced system generates air quality data by fusing model and monitoring data instead of using monitoring data alone, which provides more reliable results. The air quality estimates retain the spatial distribution of model results while calibrating the value with observations. The results show that the mean PM2.5 concentration in November 2010 decreased by 3.5 μg/m3 compared to that in 2009 due to the emission control measures. From the analysis, we estimate that the air quality improvement avoided 106 premature deaths, 1869 cases of hospital admission, and 20,026 cases of outpatient visits. The overall cost benefit of the improved air quality is estimated to be 165 million CNY, with the avoided premature death contributing 90% of this figure. The research demonstrates that BenMAP-CE is capable of assessing the health and cost benefits of air pollution control for sound policy making.

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