کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4458780 1621006 2015 19 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Scenario-based land cover change modeling and its implications for landscape pattern analysis in the Neka Watershed, Iran
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل سازی تغییر شکل پوشش زمین مبتنی بر سناریو و پیامدهای آن برای تحلیل الگوی چشم انداز در حوزه آبخیز نکه، ایران
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات کامپیوتر در علوم زمین
چکیده انگلیسی


• We simulated land cover change using a model based on MLP and LR in five scenarios.
• We assess landscape evolution by landscape metrics between 1987 and 2017.
• Best scenario found via LR runs.
• Increased fragmentation and more shape complexity in landscape will continue in 2017.

Land cover changes and urbanization cause destruction of natural habitats and threaten biodiversity. Land cover modeling is one of the most important procedures for evaluating this trend. This study was performed with the objective of comparing multi-layer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network with logistic regression (LR) in predicting land cover change and quantifying future landscape change using landscape metrics in the Neka River Basin, a small part of the eastern Hyrcanian forest, in northern Iran. For this purpose, first, change analysis was carried out using satellite imagery, from 1987 to 2011. Then, transition potential modeling was conducted using MLP and LR in 5 different scenarios. A Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis was carried out to detect the degree of correlation between variables and transitions in LR. In addition, the accuracy rate for assessing the transition potential modeling using MLP was employed. Land cover change prediction was conducted using prediction for 2011 and 2017. The accuracy assessment model was determined by comparing the actual land cover map of 2011 with the predicted land cover map of 2011. Landscape indices for 1987, 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2017 were calculated and analyzed using Fragstats to determine the impact of land cover change on landscape fragmentation. The result showed that during 1987–2001, agriculture was the main contributor to the increased built-up area. The most important transition was the conversion of agriculture to orchard and residential, between 2001 and 2006. Forest regenerated from orchard and agricultural lands, between 2006 and 2011. The maximum and minimum amounts of Cramer's V were obtained for the empirical likelihood to change variable and distance from the river. Overall kappa obtained in the best scenario based on LR was 88%. Furthermore, the prediction results showed that major deforestation will occur in surrounding forest areas and most residential development is in the outskirts of the town of Neka. Increased fragmentation in the landscape will continue in 2017, more shape complexity will be observed, and habitats of the Neka Basin will become more diverse and abundant. The results of this study provide useful information for Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) project.

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ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment - Volume 1, July 2015, Pages 1–19
نویسندگان
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