Satellite-derived conditions and advection patterns off Iberia and NW Africa: Potential implications to sardine recruitment dynamics and population structuring

Surface velocity estimates from wind and altimeter data, together with satellite-derived sea surface temperature and chlorophyll, were used to explore the advection patterns and environmental conditions using a simple Lagrangian model. Although the model is generic (only considering the physical transport), the results are of particular interest for sardine (Sardina pilchardus) early life stages, due to the spawning dynamics of the species off Iberia and NW Africa. Particles were released on the shelf of the Iberian and northern African Atlantic coasts every five days from 1998 to 2004 and advected for 27-days. Trajectories were computed using combinations of three surface velocity constituents: Ekman velocity, geostrophic velocity derived from sea level anomaly maps and mean geostrophic velocity derived from two mean dynamic topographies. Daily time series of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration and water depth where constructed for each particle trajectory. The results showed strong regional and seasonal dependence of the transport due to wind, with average seasonal cycles of the percentage of particles found in the shelf reflecting the anticipated effect of the seasonal north–south migration of the trade wind belt. The addition of the geostrophic transport led to the attenuation of seasonal cycles and higher mean/maximum values in the probability of retention within the shelf. This increased capacity for retention even during strong upwelling conditions seems to have been overlooked by theories aiming to describe the reproductive strategies of pelagic fish and understand recruitment dynamics based primarily on wind variability. On the other hand, the average surface chlorophyll values indicated a distribution area with higher primary production for particles that never leave the shelf, in comparison to those that return to it or are found in the open sea a month after release, which is in agreement with existing hypotheses that offshore advection is detrimental to larval survival mainly due to the higher risk of starvation. Finally, the exchange between adjacent shelf areas was generally small (less than 5%) within the study period, with the exception of the Gulf of Cadiz. In the latter area, up to 50% of particles released in the southern Iberian shelf reached the Moroccan shelf in several events, contradicting previous suggestions that the Strait of Gibraltar acts as a physical barrier that promotes genetic differentiation among neighbouring sardine populations in the Atlantic. Overall, these results provide useful insights for the study of sardine dynamics in the northeast Atlantic but the unexpectedly high sensitivity of summary metrics (namely retention probability) to the choice of surface velocity field preclude firm conclusions and indicate alternative routes for future studies.