Irrigation vulnerability assessment on agricultural water supply risk for adaptive management of climate change in South Korea

• An irrigation vulnerability assessment model was applied to climate change.
• Vulnerability assessment is based on a probability theory and reliability analysis.
• Change in vulnerability probabilities due to climate change were analyzed.
• Vulnerability was estimated to evaluate the performance of water supply risk.

Climate change influences various environmental aspects, including those specifically related to agricultural water resources such as runoff, evapotranspiration, droughts and floods. Understanding the impact of climate change on reservoirs in relation to the passage of time is an important component of water resource management and the maintenance of a stable water supply. In different regions, changes in rainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can increase the occurrences of reservoir water shortages and affect the future availability of agricultural water resources differently. It is a main concern for sustainable development in agricultural water resources management to evaluate the adaptive capability of a water supply under future climate conditions. Studies on climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments have been an essential process for preparing adaptive measures. This paper proposes a practical method to assess water supply vulnerability and sustainability in terms of climate change for the adaptive capability of agricultural reservoirs in South Korea based on a concept of probability theory and reliability analysis using time-dependent change analysis of water supply and demand. The objectives of this study were to investigate if there is evidence of climate change occurrences with respect to potential water supply capacity and irrigation water requirements; and to apply an irrigation vulnerability assessment model to assess the potential effects and predict the impacts of agricultural water demand and supply on reservoir operation to govern local water management decisions under climate variability and change. The irrigation vulnerability was estimated to evaluate the performance of water supplies in agricultural reservoirs; it is a recommended preparatory adaptive measure for developing a future water supply strategy in terms of using climate change scenarios reflecting different future conditions.

Schematic diagram of the irrigation vulnerability assessment in agricultural reservoirs considering climate change.Figure optionsDownload as PowerPoint slide