کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
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4500875 | 1320029 | 2008 | 20 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease](/preview/png/4500875.png)
This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a CA land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model in S-Plus. The innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. Heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (CA) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. A population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in Southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the UK. The simulation results for Southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. The modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications.
Journal: Mathematical Biosciences - Volume 211, Issue 1, January 2008, Pages 166–185