Justifying the Gompertz curve of mortality via the generalized Polya process of shocks

• A new probabilistic model of aging that can be applied to organisms is suggested and analyzed.
• The suggested approach is based on the new counting process recently introduced in the literature.
• The new counting process can be used for modeling of aging of organisms.
• The survival probability and the corresponding mortality rate are derived and analyzed.
• The Gompertz mortality curve is derived and the corresponding assumptions are discussed.

A new probabilistic model of aging that can be applied to organisms is suggested and analyzed. Organisms are subject to shocks that follow the generalized Polya process (GPP), which has been recently introduced and characterized in the literature. Distinct from the nonhomogeneous Poisson process that has been widely used in applications, the important feature of this process is the dependence of its future behavior on the number of previous events (shocks). The corresponding survival and the mortality rate functions are derived and analyzed. The general approach is used for justification of the Gompertz law of human mortality.