An approach to understanding persistent yield variation—A case study in North China Plain

• Conducted a field-based survey with fields that had persistently highest or lowest remote sensing yield estimates.
• Access to high quality irrigation water was found to be a major constraint to yield.
• Farmers’ reasoning of cultivar choice was significant to yield.

Large gaps between maize yields on average farmers’ fields and the highest yields achieved by either experiment or farmers are typical throughout the developing world, including in the North China Plain (NCP). Understanding the underlying causes to this yield gap is important for prioritizing strategies for shrinking this gap and improving food security. Quzhou county in Hebei province is typical of the winter-wheat summer-maize system in NCP where the average plot size is only 0.25 ha. To analyze this cropping system amidst the challenge of substantial heterogeneity, we identified fields that were either persistently higher or lower yielding according to remote sensing yield estimates, and then conducted detailed field surveys. We found irrigation facility to be a major constraint to yield both in terms of irrigation water quality and farmers’ access to wells. In total, improving the access to unsalty water would be associated with a 0.32 t/ha (4.2%) increase in multi-year average yield. In addition, farmers’ method of choosing cultivar, which likely relates to their overall knowledge level, significantly explained yield variation. In particular, those choosing cultivars according to technician advice, personal experiences and high yielding neighbors’ advice had on average higher yield than farmers that either followed seed sellers’ advice or collectively purchased seeds.