Identifying the impact of multi-hazards on crop yield—A case for heat stress and dry stress on winter wheat yield in northern China

• We analyse spatio-temporal pattern of heat stress and dry stress in northern China.
• Both heat stress and dry stress have significantly impacted winter wheat yield.
• We note that the opposite spatial pattern exists between exposure and sensitivity.
• Adaptation could significantly impact the response of yield to extreme events.
• Multi-hazards and adaptive capacity are critical in assessing actual climate risk.

Winter wheat production in northern China severely suffered from high temperatures and low relative humidity. However, the spatio-temporal pattern of heat stress and dry stress and the impacts of these multi-hazards on winter wheat yield have rarely been investigated. Using historical climate data, phenology data and yield records from 1980 to 2008, an analysis was performed to characterize the spatio-temporal variability of heat stress and dry stress in the post-heading stages of wheat growth in northern China. Additionally, these stresses’ impacts on winter wheat yield fluctuations were evaluated. Spatially, the central and northern parts of northern China have seen more serious heat stress, while greater dry stress has been observed in the northwest and north of the research area. Temporally, the heat stress has increased in the western part but decreased in the central and eastern parts of research area. Dry stress has aggravated in the entire northern China during the past decades, indicating the complexity of the exposure to adverse climate conditions. These two hazards (heat stress and dry stress) have contributed significant yield loss (up to 1.28% yield yr−1) in most parts of the research region. The yield in the west was more sensitive to heat stress, and dry stress was the main hazard in the south. Additionally, the opposite spatial pattern between the sensitivity and exposure revealed that the climate is not the only factor controlling the yield fluctuation, the local adaptation measures used to mitigate negative influences of extreme events should not be ignored. In general, this study highlighted a focus on the impacts of multi-hazards on agricultural production, and an equal importance of considering local adaptation ability during the evaluation of agricultural risk in the future. Additionally, paying more attention to higher sensitive areas and to more reasonable and practical adaptive strategies is critical and significant for food supply security.