Modelling the ecosystem dynamics of the Barents Sea including the marginal ice zone: II. Carbon flux and interannual variability

An upgraded and revised physically–biologically coupled, nested 3D model with 4 km grid size is applied to investigate the seasonal carbon flux and its interannual variability. The model is validated using field data from the years for which the carbon flux was modelled, focussing on its precision in space and time, the adequacy of the validation data, suspended biomass and vertical export. The model appears to reproduce the space and time (± 1 week and 10 nautical miles) distribution of suspended biomass well, but it underestimates vertical export of carbon at depth. The modelled primary production ranges from 79 to 118 g C m− 2 year− 1 (average 93 g C m− 2 year− 1) between 4 different years with higher variability in the ice-covered Arctic (± 26%) than in the Atlantic (± 7%) section. Meteorological forcing has a strong impact on the vertical stratification of the regions dominated by Atlantic water and this results in significant differences in seasonal variability in primary production. The spatially integrated primary production in the Barents Sea is 42–49% greater during warm years than the production during the coolest and most ice-covered year.