کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5116481 1378098 2017 12 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
بررسی پتانسیل شبکه های بیزی برای تغییرات آب و هوایی ارزیابی و مدیریت: یک چشم انداز چند ریسک
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
چکیده انگلیسی


- Bayesian Networks applications for environmental management are critically reviewed.
- Potentials of Bayesian Networks for climate change multi-risk assessment are discussed.
- Main limitations are highlighted and future developments suggested.

The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Environmental Management - Volume 202, Part 1, 1 November 2017, Pages 320-331
نویسندگان
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