Anticipation and post-construction impact of a metro extension on residential values: The case of Laval (Canada), 1995-2013

The application of hedonic pricing models has a long history in estimating the externalities associated with urban infrastructure, such as public transportation. However, results accuracy crucially depends on methodological and empirical considerations such as: i) presence of spatial latent component (spatial autocorrelation); ii) temporal breaks related to different periods over which the infrastructure is built; and iii) heterogeneity of the effect along the line and stations. This paper aims to assess the impact of Montréal's metro extension to the suburb city of Laval (announced in 1998 and started operating in 2007). A spatial difference-in-difference (SDID) estimator based on a repeated sales approach is used to isolate the impact of the proximity to the new infrastructure on single-family house prices depending on the implementation phases and the stations. The results suggest that among the three new infrastructures, only one shows a positive impact of proximity after the first operation of the transit service. The study results tend to relativize the sometimes high expectations in terms of economic impacts of such a project, at least for residential properties.