Exploring the impact of high speed railways on the spatial redistribution of economic activities - Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as a case study

- Spatial redistribution of economic activities driven by HSR was modeled based on the current account identity.
- GNWR was devised by extending GWR with network analysis indices.
- Net inflow or outflow of cities was evaluated based on regression coefficients of GNWR.
- Impacts of HSR on investment and consumption were found with respect to reorganized railway cliques.
- Specific policy suggestions based on GNWR analyses were made.

The high speed railway (HSR) network in China has developed rapidly over the past ten years, offering a new means of travel and also regenerating and redistributing economic activities by encouraging population mobility. Using the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as a case study, this paper investigates the redistribution of economic activities resulting from HSRs by developing a locally weighted regression model, geographically network weighted regression (GNWR). This GNWR is formulated in light of the current account identity in economics, and incorporates the changes in network-based travel time from HSRs and the degrees of cities, thereby offering a more appropriate method of capturing the movement of economic activities. Importantly, the coefficients in GNWR can reflect the net inflow or outflow of different cities in terms of their residents' investment and/or consumption. The results of the analysis show that HSRs have significantly changed the spatial redistribution of economic activities due to more frequent and rapid mobility. For investment activities, HSR drew the inflow to the second tier cities alongside HSR and strengthened the status of core cities; for consumption activities, HSR motivated the inflow to non-HSR cities located in the peripheral areas.