کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5119520 1485944 2016 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A max-stable process model for rainfall extremes at different accumulation durations
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
یک مدل فرایند حداکثر پایدار برای شدت بارندگی در زمان های مختلف انباشت
کلمات کلیدی
مدل سلسله مراتبی بیزی، تئوری ارزش افراطی، فرایند حداکثر پایدار زنجیره مارکوف مونت کارلو، منحنی فرکانس شدت-مدت زمان، مدلسازی فضایی،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات علم هواشناسی
چکیده انگلیسی

A common existing approach to modeling rainfall extremes employs a spatial Bayesian hierarchical model, where latent Gaussian processes are specified on distributional parameters in order to pool spatial information. The data are taken to be conditionally independent given the latent processes, and so spatial dependence arises only through this conditional structure. This methodology can be extended by incorporating an explicit max-stable dependence structure, which therefore produces more realistic spatial surfaces, and removes the assumption of conditional independence. We further extend the max-stable methodology to incorporate the joint modeling of rainfall data at different accumulation durations. We therefore pool information across both space and accumulation duration within a broad framework which includes an explicit specification of spatial dependence. Our model can be used to derive inferences at ungauged sites, and easily incorporates missing values.Our methodology is applied to a dataset of pluviometer records recorded at 182 meteorological stations located on the Central Coast of New South Wales, Australia. For each station, rainfall data are accumulated over 16 different durations ranging from 5 min to 7 days. The model is fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, employing auxiliary variables so that exact Bayesian inference can be performed. We present estimated parameters and posterior inferences for isohyetal maps and intensity-duration-frequency curves at selected sites of interest, and compare our inferences with those derived from the standard latent variable model.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Weather and Climate Extremes - Volume 13, September 2016, Pages 44-53
نویسندگان
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