کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5125135 1488272 2017 19 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A Generalized Dynamic Discrete Choice Model for Green Vehicle Adoption
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
یک مدل انتخاب گسسته پویا عمومی برای تصویب وسایل نقلیه سبز
کلمات کلیدی
مدل انتخاب گسسته پویا، مشکل متوقف کردن مصرف کننده فرآیند خودکار رگرسیون، تصویب خودرو سبز، خودرو الکتریکی .،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی علوم اجتماعی تحقیقات ایمنی
چکیده انگلیسی

:Much is happening in the automotive industry and new models are in the market or are expected to be available soon. At the same time, environmental awareness, new regulations for increased fuel efficiency, and the need to diminish greenhouse gas emissions make small vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles more competitive. As a consequence, vehicle characteristics and consumer decisions will change rapidly in the short and medium run. Accounting for the dynamic of the problem is important to correctly forecast green vehicle acceptance and to evaluate eco-friendly policies. This paper proposes a generalized dynamic discrete choice approach that models purchase behavior and forecasts future preferences in a finite time horizon setting. The framework allows one-time purchases, repeated purchases, univariate and multivariate diffusion processes that capture the evolution of vehicle characteristics and dynamics in the market conditions. The models proposed are estimated using stated preference data collected in Maryland. Results show that the formulation with repeated purchases successfully captures changes in the market shares, and that the multivariate diffusion process adopted to model the evolution of fuel prices further improves both model fit and the ability to recover peaks in demand. The estimated coefficients have been applied to test different policy scenarios, including changes in fuel prices, vehicle purchase prices, and improvements of car characteristics. These policies have a high impact on the adoption of electric cars and on their diffusion in the marketplace.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Transportation Research Procedia - Volume 23, 2017, Pages 868-886
نویسندگان
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