Prediction of arrival flow profile of transit stream on link

It is essential in coordinated control to analyses the relationship of vehicular stream between upstream and downstream on arterial, and the arrival flow profile of section is a useful tool to describe the relationship. The arrival flow profile of transit stream is variable because of lower speed and stopping service. The objective of this paper is analyzing the relationship and characteristic of the transit stream, and predicting the arrival flow profile of transit stream on link. According the road conditions, some critical sections on arterial were defined. Simulation detected data were collected, the arriving vehicles at different signal periods were summarized and counted according to the smaller intervals, and the arrival flow profiles on critical sections were drawn. The impact of arrival flow profile by segment dispersion and stopping service was analyzed. On the basis of the speed cumulative probability distribution, transfer matrix which considers segment dispersion was built. The postpone time of transit vehicle was computed with Monte Carlo numerical simulation method. On the basis of postpone time cumulative frequency curve, postpone transition rate of interval was obtained by shifting the curve and calculating the areas, and the transfer matrix which considers stopping service was built. The arrival flow rate of upstream section multiplied by the transfer matrix made the arrival flow rate of downstream section on link. The results show that Monte Carlo numerical simulation method is feasible, and the relative error of predicted distribution of arrival flow rate is small. The prediction methods of arrival flow rate based on transfer matrix is effective.