Probabilistic precipitation nowcasting based on an extrapolation of radar reflectivity and an ensemble approach

An example of probabilistic forecasts for 21 July 1700 UTC. The left column displays probability forecasts of precipitation exceeding TR = 0.1 mm/h and lead times of T = 20, 40 and 60 min. The right column displays the same for TR = 1 mm/h. The dark green areas in the background show places with radar-derived precipitation exceeding the given threshold. The forecasted probabilities are depicted by contours whose values are from 0.1 to 0.9 with a step of 0.1. Low probabilities are displayed in shades of blue, medium probabilities are represented by green and yellow colours, and the highest probabilities are shown in orange and red.495