کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5760591 1624138 2017 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Stochasticity, heterogeneity, and variance in longevity in human populations
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
استحکام، ناهمگنی و واریانس طول عمر در جمعیت های انسانی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
Heterogeneity in mortality is described by the gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model, in which a gamma distributed “frailty” modifies a baseline Gompertz-Makeham mortality schedule. Model parameters were estimated by maximum likelihood for a range of starting ages. The estimates were used to construct an age×frailty-classified matrix model, from which we compute the variance of longevity and its components due to heterogeneous frailty and to individual stochasticity. The estimated fraction of the variance in longevity due to heterogeneous frailty (averaged over time) is less than 10% for all countries and for both sexes. These results suggest that most of the variance in human longevity arises from stochasticity, rather than from heterogeneous frailty.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Theoretical Population Biology - Volume 114, April 2017, Pages 107-116
نویسندگان
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