Time-to-event analysis of predictors for recovery from Salmonella Dublin infection in Danish dairy herds between 2002 and 2012

Prior recovery from test-positivity turned out not to be a significant predictor of recovery in the model. The effect of the duration of infection on the conditional probability of recovery (i.e. the hazard) was time-dependent: early in the study period, long durations of infection were predictive of a low hazard of recovery. Later in the control programme the effect of duration of infection was reduced indicating a desired effect of an intensified control programme. There was an increasing tendency towards longer durations and lower hazard of recovery with: (i) increasing herd sizes, (ii) increasing bulk-tank milk somatic cell counts, (iii) increasing local prevalence within a 5 km radius, (iv) organic farming and (v) recent purchase of cattle from test-positive herds. Participation in a voluntary paratuberculosis control programme reduced the duration of infection, and there were indications that recovery from S. Dublin infection was stimulated by a centrally organised and targeted control campaign. This is the first large-scale study that investigated duration of infection and predictors of recovery from S. Dublin in cattle herds over an extended period of time. The results provide useful knowledge for the design of control programmes for S. Dublin.