A Monte Carlo approach to the inverse problem of diffuse pollution risk in agricultural catchments

► We apply SCIMAP, a risk based pollution model with a connectivity treatment. ► We use a Bayesian approach to identify sources of nitrate and phosphate risk. ► Some land use generates a consistently high or low risk of diffuse pollution. ► But risks for different land uses vary both between catchments and nutrients. ► The dominant sources of risk are often a function of their spatial configuration.