Modeling long distance dispersal of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus as a polydisperse aerosol - Application to the emergence of a new strain from Egypt to Israel

Long distance dispersal (LDD) of airborne aerosol of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus was extensively modeled in the literature. Most studies modeled this aerosol in simplistic approach as a passive tracer, neglecting physical and biological mechanisms that affect bio-aerosols such as the FMD aerosol. This approach was justified either because under persistent wind these mechanisms lower the extant of downwind hazard or on the grounds that the effect of some of the physical mechanisms on particles as small as the FMD particles (0.015-20 μm) is supposed to be negligible compared to the effect of atmospheric turbulence. Even when the FMD aerosol was treated as aerosol, it was assumed that it is monodisperse, i.e., all its particles are of the same size. The aim of the study is to examine whether these simplistic approaches are indeed justified when dealing with LDD of a bio-aerosol under actual atmospheric conditions. In order to do so, the influence of a more realistic modeling of the FMD aerosol as a polydisperse aerosol was compared to passive tracer and to monodisperse aerosol. The comparison refers to a case of a widespread FMD outbreak that occurred in 2012 in Egypt. This outbreak involved the emergence of a new serotype in Egypt, SAT2 and concern was raised that this serotype will advance further to Asia and Europe. Israel is located on the land bridge between Africa, Asia and Europe, and shares a long desert border with Egypt as well as a long Mediterranean shore adjacent to Egypt's shore. This unique location as well as the fact that Israel does not have any cattle trade with its neighboring countries make Israel an interesting test case for the examination of the necessary conditions for the long distance dispersal (LDD) of a new FMD strains from Africa to Europe. The analysis in this study shows that under quasi-stationary wind conditions modeling FMD dispersal as a passive tracer results in a significantly longer hazard distance. Under non-stationary conditions this modeling assumption results in an under-estimation of the hazard distance in comparison to the results of polydisperse aerosol. In these conditions modeling the FMD dispersal as a monodisperse aerosol results in similar under-estimation. The implications of such under-estimation may be severe because it may lead authorities in a threatened area to refrain from taking the necessary protective measures. Therefore, the modeling of the FMD aerosol as a polydisperse aerosol is preferable, leading to realistic estimation both under non-stationary and stationary wind conditions.