Historic and future trends of vehicle emissions in Beijing, 1998-2020: A policy assessment for the most stringent vehicle emission control program in China

As a pioneer in controlling vehicle emissions within China, Beijing released the Clean Air Action Plan 2013-2017 document in August 2013 to improve its urban air quality. It has put forward this plan containing the most stringent emission control policies and strategies to be adopted for on-road vehicles of Beijing. This paper estimates the historic and future trends and uncertainties in vehicle emissions of Beijing from 1998 to 2020 by applying a new emission factor model for the Beijing vehicle fleet (EMBEV). Our updated results show that total emissions of CO, THC, NOx and PM2.5 from the Beijing vehicle fleet are 507 (395-819) kt, 59.1 (41.2-90.5) kt, 74.7 (54.9-103.9) kt and 2.69 (1.91-4.17) kt, respectively, at a 95% confidence level. This represents significant reductions of 58%, 59%, 31% and 62%, respectively, relative to the total vehicle emissions in 1998. The past trends clearly posed a challenge to NOx emission mitigation for the Beijing vehicle fleet, especially in light of those increasing NOx emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) which have partly offset the reduction benefit from light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs). Because of recently announced vehicle emission controls to be adopted in Beijing, including tighter emissions standards, limitations on vehicle growth by more stringent license control, promotion of alternative fuel technologies (e.g., natural gas) and the scrappage of older vehicles, estimated vehicle emissions in Beijing will continue to be mitigated by 74% of CO, 68% of THC, 56% of NOx and 72% of PM2.5 in 2020 compared to 2010 levels. Considering that many of the megacities in China are facing tremendous pressures to mitigate emissions from on-road vehicles, our assessment will provide a timely case study of significance for policy-makers in China.