Examining the influence of meteorological simulations forced by different initial and boundary conditions in volcanic ash dispersion modelling

Meteorological results indicated that the simulation performed with WRF and NCEP-GFS shows the lowest errors at levels between 925 and 300 hPa. Ash dispersion simulated with FALL3D and WRF in both dynamic conditions shows a different perfomance, which from the synoptic and dynamic viewpoint can be explained for the result of wind intensity and geopotential height. Moreover, WRF intiliazed with NCEP-GFS and FALL3D has a higher degree of concordance with the MODIS image. Based on the analysis and results, it was concluded that for the southern cone of South America, 1) it was not trivial for the simulation of volcanic ash dispersion to use one dynamic condition or another in WRF; 2) in that sense, meteorological variables that influenced the differences in volcanic ash dispersion were horizontal wind intensity and direction and geopotential heights; 3) the system generated from the combination of the WRF model initialized with NCEP-GFS and the FALL3D dispersion model would provide better estimations of ash plume position and deposition in the region.