Predicting lightning activity in Greece with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

- Lightning activity in Greece is simulated with the WRF model.
- The lightning parameterization in WRF tends to overproduce lightning.
- Proper adaptation of the lighting parameterization is required.
- The use of storm parameters improves the simulation of lightning activity.
- The adapted lightning parameterization can be used for operational lightning prediction.

In recent years, significant progress has been made in the development and implementation of parameterizations for the prediction of lightning. In the present study, the commonly used Price and Rind lightning parameterization is evaluated. This parameterization has been recently introduced in the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, allowing for the online simulation of lightning activity. The evaluation of the parameterization is conducted for ten different single-day events that took place in Greece during the period of years from 2010 to 2013. Results show that the WRF model could be used for real-time lightning prediction applications, given that the lightning parameterization is properly adapted. In particular, the analysis revealed that model-resolved variables related to the microphysics and thermodynamics are necessary for controlling the parameterization of lightning, which otherwise results to significant overprediction. The total ice content, the maximum vertical velocity and the convective available potential energy were found to be the storm parameters that, when combined together, improve the ability of the model to correctly predict lightning, significantly restricting false alarms. This was further highlighted by separately examining two example case studies, for which the numerical simulations successfully reproduced the spatial and temporal characteristics of lightning activity.