A model-based method to evaluate the ability of nature reserves to protect endangered tree species in the context of climate change

Climate change has the potential to severely threaten endangered tree species. These species are important and sometimes dominant elements of natural communities. We conducted four years of field surveys to identify the distributions of endangered tree species present in the forests of north-eastern China. We conducted a detailed investigation of 1886 study plots and selected seven endangered trees (each with a total of ⩾5 records) for further analysis. We modelled and mapped the distributions of potentially suitable climatic habitat for these species using the case of north-eastern China. We then developed a method that uses a combination of a species distribution model and geographic information system (GIS) to evaluate the ability of nature reserves to protect endangered tree species from disruptions caused by climate change. We found that the locations of suitable habitats for the seven endangered trees would shift variously according to different emissions scenarios and that this would result in a change in the effectiveness of each nature reserve to conserve the trees. Hence, emissions scenarios that result in increased amounts of suitable habitat give those nature reserves a strong ability to protect endangered trees. Emissions scenarios that result in decreased amounts of suitable land will decrease the ability of some nature reserves to protect endangered trees. Some of the tree species may be able to adapt to climate change, allowing the trees to survive in many of the nature reserves, but some may not. Ultimately, our method assesses the ability of nature reserves to protect endangered trees effectively and is a methodology that can be applied to any endangered species requiring planning for future protection and management.