Reconciling wood production with bird conservation: A regional analysis using bird distribution models and forestry scenarios in Tokachi district, northern Japan

We examined the relationships between stand age and bird abundance in natural forests and two plantation types (larch Larix kaempferi and Todo fir Abies sachalinensis) in Tokachi district, northern Japan. Early successional species were found in 10-20-year-old larch and Todo fir plantations, as well as in older natural forests. The abundance of cavity nesters increased with stand age in all three forest types, but their abundance was consistently higher in natural forests than in plantations of the same age. We used these relationships to predict the abundance of each functional group under different forestry scenarios over a 100-year period. A scenario for optimizing larch plantations through a 100% replanting rate following clear-cuts (current replanting rate is 41%) maintained current harvest volumes over the next 100 years. One future possible scenario, in which the replanting rate was increased, resulted in higher wood production levels and a higher abundance of cavity nesters in larch plantations than the current trend scenario. Abandoned plantation clear-cuts were predicted to support large numbers of early successional species. The results also suggested that active wood production activities in natural forests would substantially decrease the abundance of cavity nesters in this region.