Exploring the role of forest resources in reducing community vulnerability to the heat effects of climate change

While the growing literature on forest ecosystem services has examined the value and significance of a range of services, our understanding of the health-related benefits of ecosystem services from forests is still limited. To characterize the role of forest resources in reducing community vulnerability to the heat effects of climate change, a general index of heat vulnerability (HEVI) was developed through Principle Components Analysis (PCA) and subsequently used within ANVOA and Poisson regression to assess the relationship between the amount and type of forest resources (species, management regime, spatial pattern) and a county's vulnerability to the heat effects of climate change. Results of the ANOVA showed significant differences in the extent and characteristics of forests among counties experiencing different levels of heat vulnerability. The Poisson regression using county heat mortality as the dependent variable found forest characteristics to have a significant influence on heat mortality when other determinants of vulnerability were controlled. A negative and significant relationship was specifically found between forest area and heat related mortality, which supports the hypothesis that the extent of forest coverage helps to alleviate vulnerability associated with heat effects. These findings have important implications for understanding the role of forest ecosystem services in reducing a community's vulnerability to the heat effects of climate change. Findings will also be useful in guiding land use planning and preserving desirable forest characteristics to help communities adapt to climate change.