Land use changes to cash crop plantations: crop types, multilevel determinants and policy implications

Cash crop plantation has recently become an expanding global phenomenon. Characterizing the dynamics of cash crop plantations and the corresponding determinants should provide critical references for land use policy. Using aerial photos and geographic information system, this paper investigated the trends of four types of cash crops (tea, fruit, mulberry and nursery) and their relations to other land use changes within Hangzhou region in subtropical China. Results showed that the total cash crop cultivated surface increased by 541.3 ha from 2004 to 2014. Most of the new tea and fruit plantations were established in places previously used as forest and woodland. Mulberry and nursery mainly expanded by replacing paddy, woodland and forest. By combining household survey, geospatial techniques and multilevel regression, multilevel determinants of cash cropping probability and cash crop expansion were quantified. At the parcel level, tea and fruit plantations inclined to occur on hilly land with gentle slope. Mulberry and nursery plantations were likely to be observed in flat areas with low elevation. Parcels covered by high quality soils and with convenient communications experienced greater cash cropping probability. At the household level, households constituted of female and old-aged labor or with low agricultural labor intensity demonstrated high probability of tea and mulberry plantations. Conversely, households constituted of middle-aged labor or with high agricultural labor intensity tended to grow more fruit and nursery. Besides, wealthier households were prone to establish fruit and nursery plantations but were reluctant to involve in tea and mulberry cropping. At the village level, population density was a significant determinant of cash cropping probability, but was an insignificant determinant of cash crop expansion. Greater occurrence of cash cropping was observed in villages with higher proportion of migrant labor and leasing land. Distance to county road and distance to provincial road were identified as negative determinants. Policy was evidenced to be of significant influence on cash cropping probability and cash crop expansion. We argue that a balance should be achieved between cash cropping promotion and natural resources protection in formulating the local land use policy.