A Bayesian belief network framework to predict SOC dynamics of alternative management scenarios

Results showed that the constructed BBN framework was able to describe SOC dynamics of the Veneto region, predicting probabilities of general accumulation (11.0%) and depletion (55.0%), similar to those already measured in field studies (15.3% and 50%, respectively). A general enhancement in the SOC content was observed where a minimum soil disturbance was adopted. This outcome suggested that management strategies of conversion from croplands to grasslands, no tillage and conservation agriculture are the most promising management strategies to reverse existing SOC reduction dynamics. Moreover, measures implying SOC stocks were also those providing major benefits in terms of GHGs reduction emissions. Finally, climate change scenarios slightly affected management practice. Advancements in our BBN framework might include more detailed classes at higher resolution as well as any socio-cultural or economic aspect that should improve the evaluation of prediction scenarios.