کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6962042 1452245 2018 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Real-time forecasting and visualization toolkit for multi-seasonal time series
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ابزار پیش بینی و تجسم در زمان واقعی برای سری زمانی چند فصلی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر نرم افزار
چکیده انگلیسی
Many environmental data sets are driven by multiple superimposed periods, yet most time series analysis software packages only support single-seasonality. The objective of this research was to develop a software toolkit utilizing multi-seasonal Autoregressive Integrated (msARI) models. A toolkit in MATLAB was developed for msARI-based identification, estimation, forecasting, and visualization. In the toolkit, an adaptive forecasting routine uses a continual event loop for real-time data acquisition and parameter re-estimation. A statistical quality control algorithm monitors model performance and re-estimates parameters when necessary. A set of visualization tools provide animated graphical representations of forecasts, prediction intervals and key performance metrics. The toolkit was applied to three case studies: electricity demands, water demands, and sewer flows. The analysis of the results demonstrated that the explicit modeling of multi-seasonality improved model predictions. Therefore, the msARI software presents a promising tool for modeling and predicting real-time data series.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software - Volume 105, July 2018, Pages 244-256
نویسندگان
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