Calculating the income counterfactual for oil producing countries of the MENA region

How much richer would the oil producing countries, in the Middle East, be if they invested all their natural resource rent? This study tries to answer this question by calculating the counterfactuals of capital stock and income under two major scenarios. Combining several data sets, including a unique one on sovereign wealth funds, it finds that the oil producing economies of the MENA region could have had on average about 0.4 percentage point higher growth rate if they had used their natural resource rents efficiently. This difference in growth rate translates to about 17% higher income over a 40 year period. These numbers are calculated for each country separately and their important policy implications are discussed.