کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
7403099 | 1481294 | 2014 | 15 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Forecasting global developments in the basic chemical industry for environmental policy analysis
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
پیش بینی تحولات جهانی در صنعت شیمی پایه برای تجزیه و تحلیل سیاست های زیست محیطی
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کلمات کلیدی
OECDC&IChina and IndiaBPTEITMEAPACSECNorth America - آمریکای شمالیAsia Pacific - آسیا و اقیانوسیهSouth America - آمریکای جنوبیODA - اتاقEurope - اروپا Economies in transition - اقتصادهای در حال گذارEnergy efficiency - بهره وری انرژیScenario analysis - تجزیه و تحلیل سناریوUSD - دلار آمریکاUnited States dollar - دلار آمریکاCarbon dioxide - دیاکسید کربنOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development - سازمان همکاری اقتصادی و توسعهyear - سالspecific energy consumption - مصرف انرژی خاصCO2 - کربن دیاکسیدEUR - یورو
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
چکیده انگلیسی
The chemical sector is the largest industrial energy user, but detailed analysis of its energy use developments lags behind other energy-intensive sectors. A cost-driven forecasting model for basic chemicals production is developed, accounting for regional production costs, demand growth and stock turnover. The model determines the global production capacity placement, implementation of energy-efficient Best Practice Technology (BPT) and global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the period 2010-2030. Subsequently, the effects of energy and climate policies on these parameters are quantified. About 60% of new basic chemical production capacity is projected to be placed in non-OECD regions by 2030 due to low energy prices. While global production increases by 80% between 2010 and 2030, the OECD's production capacity share decreases from 40% to 20% and global emissions increase by 50%. Energy pricing and climate policies are found to reduce 2030 CO2 emissions by 5-15% relative to the baseline developments by increasing BPT implementation. Maximum BPT implementation results in a 25% reduction. Further emission reductions require measures beyond energy-efficient technologies. The model is useful to estimate general trends related to basic chemicals production, but improved data from the chemical sector is required to expand the analysis to additional technologies and chemicals.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 64, January 2014, Pages 273-287
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 64, January 2014, Pages 273-287
نویسندگان
M.L.M. Broeren, D. Saygin, M.K. Patel,