Public policy and the transition to electric drive vehicles in the U.S.: The role of the zero emission vehicles mandates

Together with policies already in place, a transition to zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) could almost eliminate petroleum use by light-duty vehicles and meet U.S. CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050. However, such a transition poses new challenges for public policy because of the time required, deep uncertainty, strong positive feedback effects, and regional and international interdependencies. An appropriate framework for evaluating public policy is cost/benefit analysis of alternative futures incorporating these elements. Using the same computer model used in a recent National Research Council study, the types, timing and intensity of public policy interventions likely to be necessary to accomplish a transition to electric drive vehicles in the U.S. are investigated, with special attention to the role of California's ZEV mandates. Strong, temporary policies addressing the coevolution of the vehicle and fuels markets appear necessary. Because uncertainty about the transition is profound, policies must adapt as learning reduces uncertainty.