Assessing the future of small-scale fishery systems in coastal Vietnam and the implications for policy

► The future for small-scale fishers and fish producers in Tam Giang lagoon is relatively bleak. ► Fishers perceive a consistent decline in fish size, diversity and total catch. ► The majority of fishers would prefer their children find alternative livelihoods. ► Positive feedbacks in the system need to be disrupted to escape an emerging social-ecological trap. ► Policy to support small-scale fishers and fish producers must reflect social and ecological variability.