Development of accurate tsunami estimated times of arrival for tsunami-prone cities in Aceh, Indonesia

Ten years after the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004, the Aceh Province in Indonesia has made progress toward becoming a more tsunami resilient area. The government of Indonesia has undertaken a number of efforts to facilitate a better evacuation process, but a smooth evacuation process is still at large. A major issue is that the disaster management office for the districts are yet to have clear, accurate estimations of what would be the shortest time of the arrival of the tsunami waves.The worst scenario for these cities' tsunami evacuation procedures has yet to be determined. This study seeks to discern worst tsunami estimated times of arrival for the tsunami-prone cities in Aceh. A number of numerical simulations were performed using data from past events of tsunamis in this area and a future near-shore tsunami events anticipated by most of the disaster managers around the Mentawai Island. The Cornell Multi-grid COupled Tsunami (COMCOT) model was used as the tool for the simulations. Nine selected cities were determined as observation points, i.e., Sabang, Banda Aceh, Calang, Lageun, Teunom, Meulaboh, Singkil, Sinabang, and Tapaktuan. The results of this research show that the shortest ETAs are Banda Aceh 35 min, Sabang 22 min, Lageun 25 min, Calang 29 min, Teunom 29 min, Meulaboh 35 min, Sinabang 20 min, Singkil 53 min, and Tapaktuan 24 min.