An integrated map correlation method and multiple-source sites drainage-area ratio method for estimating streamflows at ungauged catchments: A case study of the Western Black Sea Region, Turkey

Stream gauges measure the temporal variation of water quantity; thus they are vital in managing water resources. The stream gauge network in Turkey includes a limited number of gauges and often streamflow estimates need to be generated at ungauged locations where reservoirs, small hydropower plants, weirs, etc. are planned. Prediction of streamflows at ungauged locations generally relies on donor gauges where flow is assumed to be similar to that at the ungauged location. Generally, donor stream gauges are selected based on geographical proximity. However, closer stream gauges are not always the most-correlated ones. The Map Correlation Method (MCM) enables development of a map that shows the spatial distribution of the correlation between a selected stream gauge and any other location within the study region. In this study, a new approach which combines MCM with the multiple-source site drainage-area ratio (DAR) method is used to estimate daily streamflows at ungauged catchments in the Western Black Sea Region. Daily streamflows predicted by the combined three-source sites DAR with MCM approach give higher Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values than those predicted using the nearest stream gauge as the donor stream gauge, for most of the trial cases. Hydrographs and flow duration curves predicted using this approach are usually in better agreement with the observed hydrographs and flow duration curves than those predicted using the nearest catchment.