Inter-port interactions in the Le Havre-Hamburg range: A scenario analysis using a nonautonomous Lotka Volterra model

We propose an integrable nonautonomous Lotka-Volterra model to carry out a quantitative study of the interaction among container ports located in the Le Havre-Hamburg range. We find that mutualism is emerging among the ports located in the Benelux area, but not among German ports. Moreover, we develop three alternative scenarios and find that (i) for mutualism to emerge no port must be too strong vis-à-vis the others; (ii) the kind of interaction among ports depends on their geographic location, the services they provide, and demand-side factors; and (iii) upgrading intermodal connections can produce externalities that are not internalized by the investing port/country.