Truck movement across the Canada-US border: The effects of 9/11 and other factors

The objective of this study is to isolate the effects of the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and the subsequent stringent border security regime on the levels of truck movement across the Canada-US border. A time series analysis, within an econometric system that rendered stationarity and used the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimator, was performed to model these movements. The analysis represents a natural experiment on the variability of cross-border truck movements in the aftermath of 9/11. Annual truck crossing data over the period 1972-2011, disaggregated by the country of registration (US and Canada) and Canadian jurisdictions (provinces) were used in the analysis. The results indicate that in general, 9/11 have had a negative effect on the cross-border movement of Canadian and US trucks, but the impacts were more pronounced in the case of the US trucks. Other interesting results include an increase in the number of US trucks during the period that followed the last US financial crisis. The results also illustrate the importance of GDP in explaining the observed truck movements across the Canada-US border.