Comprehensive analysis of GHG emission mitigation potentials from technology policy options in South Korea's transportation sector using a bottom-up energy system model

The South Korean government released a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation target for 2030 under the 2015 Paris Agreement and developed a detailed implementation plan in 2016 to achieve the target. In this study, we analyzed the GHG emission reduction potential of South Korea's transportation sector under the implementation plan. We first identified six technology policy options already adopted or being considered for adoption by the Korean government in the near future. Next, we quantitatively analyzed the GHG emission mitigation potential of each option, as well as the combination of all the options, via the best-known and most widely used bottom-up energy system model. In addition, we estimated the marginal mitigation costs of the options and their combination. We found that more than 30% of GHG emissions can be reduced compared to the business-as-usual scenario by adopting technology options, and that most reductions can be achieved by the road transportation subsector. We also showed that a comprehensive analysis is required to estimate the total potential of the entire transportation sector, because some duplication effects exist between the options. Lastly, based on the comprehensive analysis results, we provide four implications of the plan for climate change and transportation policy makers.