The potential mitigation of CO2 emissions via modal substitution of high-speed rail for short-haul air travel from a life cycle perspective - An Australian case study

The objective of this study is to provide a strategic evaluation of the mitigation of CO2 emissions via modal substitution of high-speed rail for short-haul air travel on the Sydney-Melbourne, Australia city-pair from a life cycle perspective. It has been demonstrated that when considering CO2 emissions from vehicle operations, the modal shift from air to high-speed rail on this city-pair has the potential to provide a means of CO2 mitigation. However, uncertainty exists with regard to the level of mitigation potential when considering the whole-of-life performance of the systems. Given the significant difference in the infrastructure requirements between the air mode and the high-speed rail mode, this study quantifies the life cycle CO2 load attributable to each system and examines the effect on CO2 mitigation potential. The study concluded that while the inclusion of the linehaul infrastructure did increase the CO2 load associated with high-speed rail mode, it did not equate to or exceed the CO2 load per trip as experienced by the air mode. The avoided annual life cycle CO2 emission in the target year 2056 was 0.37 Mt representing an 18% reduction when compared to the air mode only on the city pair. In fact, the scenario comparison indicated that the substitution of high-speed rail for short-haul air travel on the city pair resulted in CO2 emissions avoidance throughout the longitudinal period.