An analysis of glass–glass CIGS manufacturing costs

• For a CIGS module at 14% efficiency, we compute $0.49/WDC manufacturing cost for the case of high volume, U.S. manufacturing.
• The manufacturing costs and current state of development of co-evaporation and SAS are compared.
• Primary cost drivers are efficiency, balance-of-module materials, and the low throughput of the CIGS deposition processes.
• Process or design changes that sacrifice efficiency increase LCOE unless associated with significant reductions in cost per area.
• However, even at lower efficiencies than (c-Si), CIGS modules could achieve similar LCOE.

This article examines current cost drivers and potential avenues to reduced cost for monolithic, glass–glass Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S)2 (CIGS) modules by constructing a comprehensive bottom-up cost model. For a reference case where sputtering plus batch sulfurization after selenization (SAS) is employed, we compute a manufacturing cost of $69/m2 if the modules are made in the United States at a 1 GW/year production volume. At 14% module efficiency, this corresponds to a manufacturing cost of $0.49/WDC and a minimum sustainable price (MSP) of $0.67/WDC. We estimate that MSP could vary within ±20% of this value given the range of quoted input prices, and existing variations in module design, manufacturing processes, and manufacturing location. Potential for reduction in manufacturing costs to below $0.40/WDC may be possible if average production module efficiencies can be increased above 17% without increasing $/m2 costs; even lower costs could be achieved if $/m2 costs could be reduced, particularly via innovations in the CIGS deposition process or balance-of-module elements. We present the impact on cost of regional factors, CIGS deposition method, device design, and price fluctuations. One metric of competitiveness-levelized cost of energy (LCOE) – is also assessed for several U.S. locations and compared to that of standard multi-crystalline silicon (m(c-Si)) and cadmium telluride (CdTe).