Quantitative analysis of the levelized cost of electricity of commercial scale photovoltaics systems in the US

• LCOE calculations of commercial scale PV system.
• Grid parity near future.
• Sensitivity of system parameters on LCOE.
• SunShot initiative, 1.3$/W by 2020.

The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of a commercial scale photovoltaics (PV) system is quantitatively investigated. The impact of the system and financial parameters, the installed system cost, solar insolation, system lifetime, system derate losses, module cost, module efficiency, balance of system (BOS) cost, inflation, discount rate, and loan rate, are quantitatively calculated using the System Advisor Model (SAM) from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). 3D contour plots are generated to assess the impact of the key system and financial parameters on the LCOE. Calculations show that an installed system cost of 2.8, 2.3, and 2.1$/W can provide an LCOE of ~10¢/kWh (average price of electricity in the US) in Phoenix, Atlanta, and Boston, respectively, for a 30 years system lifetime, 20% system derate losses without investment tax credit (ITC). In addition, contour plots are generated to show what happens to the LCOE if the above parameters change. The study uses reasonable inputs for the current (2015) commercial scale PV system in the US.