Use of a Bayesian Network for coastal hazards, impact and disaster risk reduction assessment at a coastal barrier (Ria Formosa, Portugal)

Here, an example of the implementation and results of such a BN system is presented. The BN system was built for a coastal sector of the Ria Formosa barrier island system (South Portugal) to inform the degree of impact derived from overwash and erosion over the study area. The BN boundary conditions include variable wave height, water level, and wave period. The impact on receptors, including houses and infrastructure, was assessed. In addition, this tool can inform about the effectiveness of a particular DRR measure. The evaluated DRR measures were two primary measures (partial house removal and beach replenishment) and a non-primary measure (improve channels of communication), all measures proposed by local stakeholders. Results show that for a storm with wave characteristics of the 1 in 50 year return period and spring tide conditions, the house removal DRR reduces the overwash impact by 15% and erosion impact by 58%. The implementation of beach replenishment could reduce the erosion impact of the same event by 96% while it would have a smaller effect on the overwash impact (16%). The implementation of non-primary measures would have a much smaller effect on risk reduction. The combined effect of the above DRR measures (mainly house removal and beach nourishment) reduces storm impacts at the study area to a value near zero. The BN surrogates the model simulated onshore hazards and translates them into impacts for the current conditions, which give a high degree of confidence in the potential application of the BN as a management tool.