Implementation and validation of a multi-domain coastal hazard forecasting system in an open bay

In this paper, a set-up of Delft-FEWS based forecasting system for Varna Bay (Bulgaria) and a coastal hotspot, which includes a sandy beach and port infrastructure, is presented. The system output generated in hindcast mode is validated with available observations of surge levels, wave and morphodynamic parameters for a sequence of three short-duration and relatively weak storm events occurred during February 4-12, 2015. Generally, while a longer term system operation/validation is needed for the model skills to be affirmed, the results obtained indicate a reliable prediction of coastal hazards, thus giving a sound basis for estimation of hazard impact.