کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی نسخه تمام متن
8059776 1520351 2015 14 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modelling multi-hazard hurricane damages on an urbanized coast with a Bayesian Network approach
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل سازی آسیب های طوفان های چند جانبه در یک ساحل شهری با استفاده از روش شبکه بیسین
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موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی دریا (اقیانوس)
چکیده انگلیسی
The coupled hazard model was tested against four thousand damage observations from a case site at the Rockaway Peninsula, NY, that was impacted by Hurricane Sandy in late October, 2012. The model was able to accurately distinguish 'Minor damage' from all other outcomes 95% of the time and could distinguish areas that were affected by the storm, but not severely damaged, 68% of the time. For the most heavily damaged buildings ('Major Damage' and 'Destroyed'), projections of the expected damage underestimated the observed damage. The model demonstrated that including multiple hazards doubled the prediction skill, with Log-Likelihood Ratio test (a measure of improved accuracy and reduction in uncertainty) scores between 0.02 and 0.17 when only one hazard is considered and a score of 0.37 when multiple hazards are considered simultaneously. The LHIs with the most predictive skill were 'Inundation depth' and 'Wave attack'. The Bayesian Network approach has several advantages over the market-standard stage-damage functions: the predictive capacity of multiple indicators can be combined; probabilistic predictions can be obtained, which include uncertainty; and quantitative as well as descriptive information can be used simultaneously.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Coastal Engineering - Volume 103, September 2015, Pages 1-14
نویسندگان
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