کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8061182 | 1520509 | 2016 | 10 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Prediction analysis model of integrated carrying capacity using set pair analysis
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل تجزیه و تحلیل پیش بینی ظرفیت حمل و نقل با استفاده از تحلیل جفتی مجموعه
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کلمات کلیدی
ظرفیت حمل مجتمع، تنظیم تجزیه و تحلیل جفت، تجزیه و تحلیل پیش بینی، روش متابولیک، مولفه های اصلی،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
علوم زمین و سیارات
اقیانوس شناسی
چکیده انگلیسی
As a comprehensive capacity of nature, society and humans, integrated carrying capacity (ICC) is the driving force of regional socioeconomic development. Only when an ecosystem is under-loaded can socioeconomic development be sustainable. ICC is an accumulative total value of each indicator's carrying capacity, which reflects a static status. The ICC prediction analysis is one prerequisite to making economic development plans. In this paper, a dynamic prediction model is developed by using the model of set pair analysis (SPA) to predict the growth tendency of ICC. The model is tested in a case comprising eight coastal cities in Yangtze. (1) The average error rate of this prediction model is merely 0.38%, and the lowest error rate is 0.01%. The SPA model is better to predict ICC tendencies. (2) According to the national development plan, the eight cities' ICC is predicted in 2015. (3) The prediction model is a multiple method that can contain all indicators of ICC. This model can estimate the maximal carrying capacity of a natural ecosystem to make the most suitable economic development policy. The socioeconomic development must comply with the under-loaded capacity to maintain sustainable development.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Ocean & Coastal Management - Volume 120, February 2016, Pages 39-48
Journal: Ocean & Coastal Management - Volume 120, February 2016, Pages 39-48
نویسندگان
Chao Wei, Xiaoyan Dai, Shufeng Ye, Zhongyang Guo, Jianping Wu,