Identification of observed factors that predict bather water-immersions at beaches

Coastal managers require accurate and relevant visitor information to manage visitor's leisure and recreation experiences. The study reports the development of a predictive model of bather water-immersions at selected beaches in Victoria, Australia for the daily peak-bathing period. Criterion variable data were collected over two summer periods to provide external validation. Predictor variables were observed on site or from secondary data. Results showed a statistically significant model meeting the required assumptions: Adjusted R2 = 0.65: F2, 292 = 270.50, p < 0.001; R2 95% CI: 0.58 to 0.71. Significant predictor variables were daily maximum air temperature and level of service (no service, toilet/water, or kiosk/club). Further research is required to assess the model generalisability to other beach locations and time frames.