Policy making in the cement industry for CO2 mitigation on the pathway of sustainable development- A system dynamics approach

Due to the ongoing rise of the earth surface temperature related to human activities and the socio-economic impacts of environmental stress, our long-term welfare is intertwined with sustainable development. Production of cement, as the primary material of construction, is associated with high environmental pollution and tremendous energy consumption. Considering the limitations of fossil fuel resources and strict environmental regulations, achieving sustainable production of cement is a critical initiative to be followed. In Iran, more than 26% of the total energy is consumed by industries and the share of the cement industry is 13%. In addition to high energy consumption concerns, the use of inefficient technologies for cement manufacturing has led to a huge release of CO2. Accordingly, in this study, a system dynamics approach is developed based on the Iranian cement industry to investigate the effects of three energy efficiency measures (clinker substitution, alternative fuel use, and waste heat recovery) on realizing sustainability over the period of 2015-2034. As a result of simulation, utilizing clinker substitution could potentially lead to reduction of 13% and 11%, respectively in CO2 emissions and energy consumption costs. It also creates more opportunities for exporting fossil fuels which leads to improve the country's balance of trade. On the other hand, installation of waste recovery is proven to have less influence on CO2 mitigation, while leading to an enhancement of 4.5% in manufacturer profit.